2007 real estate market central ca

[isabel]

Does any one know what the current housing market is doing in California? I hear different things. "Not down just flat." Anybody know the facts on it?

izzy

[kdm31091]

I think in some cities it was projected to drop. I do remember reading Sacramento dropping by a pretty modest 7% or so.

There were no huge drops projected. Don't think any gains either. So yeah, it will probably stay flat or drop slightly. I wouldn't expect it to be affordable ever again.

[isabel]

We want to sell and move to Boise, ID. But I need the market to up about another $50,000. Looks like it might take to at least the end of 2007:)

Izzy

[Wyoming53]

I've found that everything in California is expensive. haha Housing and land I'm talking about. Groceries aren't any different there then they are anywhere else.

My brother lives in California. He bought a house 12 years ago for $118,000. We thought he was nuts. Last summer he refinanced. The appraiser came out, looked it over and a week later he got the appraisal for $786,000. So now, as in one post, housing is supposed to drop by 7%. His $118,000 investment is only worth about $650,000. And his house is nothing special. 1800 sq feet, 4 bedroom, 2 bath. 2 car garage. Ranch style home. He used to have a swimming pool and he tore it out. The appraiser said that was a good thing because the majority of the people would love to have a home like that and don't want the hassle of maintaining a pool. It's only a few people that want a pool anymore.

Like the old adage. "Damn Martha, that's a heck of a price, we'd better wait." Yeah, go ahead and wait and check to see what the price is next month.

[PDXnative]

Originally Posted by isabel

We want to sell and move to Boise, ID. But I need the market to up about another $50,000. Looks like it might take to at least the end of 2007:)

Izzy

The prices in Boise are going to keep rising as people keep moving there.

[cleozmom]

I just saw that my former neighbor's house in Fresno sold for a little over $200,000. The home was built in the late 1940's and the neghborhood is now so-so as far as crime goes. He had a three bedroom one bath.

[RodFarlee]

A quick look at trulia.com suggests that Stockton CA home prices have dropped about 3% over the last 6 months, and 7% over the last year. Sales volumes have been relatively stable. I can't vouch for how comprehensive its coverage of the market is, though.

Moody's economy.com forecasts a continuing price decline in the Stockton real estate market through 4Q 2008, with a 15.7% drop in prices off the peak of 4Q 2005. On the bright side, this drop is only roughly what prices gained in 2005.

In contrast, Boise prices are forecast to remain strong. So time may not be on your side in delaying this move?

[isabel]

Yes, I should have sold before the market dropped.:) But now I have to wait. At least till the end of the year. If it doesn't move by then. I'll have to rethink the time table for our move. Prices will go up in Idaho. But California homes...when they go up...they really go up. Every home we have owned. Doubled it's value in 10 years. They were all in California. Of course, I only stayed put in one house that long. We bought our second home. Brand new for $38,000. 14 years later sold it for almost three times that.

So even if I have to wait. The cash out will make up for it when buying in Idaho. Do you know if their values climbed that fast in the past?

Izzy

[Sekretgardengal]

They say that the market in Florida is a mess. It is down then they said it's coming back up. Now it's down again.

[RodFarlee]

Originally Posted by isabel

So even if I have to wait. The cash out will make up for it when buying in Idaho. Do you know if their values climbed that fast in the past?

As any investment advisor is quick to note, "past performance is no guarantee of future results".

You're asking did Idaho home values rise as fast as California, Izzy? No, so they haven't fallen, either.

If you accept those forecasts, waiting one year will cost you 10 to 12% more. To put it in blunter terms, if you were to cut your asking price by 8 or 9% now and sell fast, you would not lose anything that you're not going to lose anyway by waiting a year. And you'd gain a year of your new life in Idaho, if that is what you want. Including a year of future job seniority and any benefits that might entail, and a year of Idaho home appreciation.

Your crystal ball may well be better than theirs! Mine isn't, and I see fundamentals pushing both ways: affordability is truly unsupportable in many CA markets, but that is driving the growth of inland areas (the Inland Empire, Sacramento etc), and California population is definitely forecast to continue to grow. Stockton is on the borderline between the overpriced and inland growth areas. You might have to wait more than a year, though... and then things get less predictable (deficits, interest rates, economy...). If the past is any guide, if you haven't moved before 2008 election, I'd be even more worried that things might go bad. Again, "past performance is no guarantee of future results".

So I can only wish you good luck!

[isabel]

You're most likely right Rod.:) But, we need to clear balance owed, realtor fees, and moving expenses. You see, we bought a year before the market took it's latest dive.:) So the option of lowering our price is not there. We will just have to wait and watch.:)

Izzy

[isabel]

Rod, I forgot to mention. The Stockton market is a little different from where we are. Actually the Homes in our area are less expensive than homes in Stockton.

But, it is most likely because we are 35 minutes from the near large city and most shopping. The plus side of our area is that we are in the country, sierra foothills, lots of rolling hills with oak trees and half acre to 5 acre lots with homes. Then there are the cattle and horse ranches. Schools are great and a real sense of community.

Stockton area is flat, very urban, large city, surrounding by farm land. Buying a home there is expensive in the nice areas. But the nice areas are few and far between. The schools are awful with lots of gang active. Lots of street people.

So comparing the two markets is not quite balanced. I need to find a market indicator for Jackson, San Andreas, Valley Spings. The area is often refered to as the Gold Country. Thanks for all your info. May I ask what do you do for a living. You seemed very informed and great at coming up with stats.

Izzy